The current consumer outcries regarding the price of eggs, on average Grade A large for $4.15 a dozen, is warranted. Last year at this time the same eggs cost $2.52 a dozen — that is a 36.8% increase. To understand the economics of eggs, you must acknowledge that the chicken comes first.
Headlines are solely focused on eggs, completely leaving chickens out of the pricing discussion. Of course, the debate between what comes first, the chicken or the egg, will continue no matter how expensive eggs get.
Chicken availability is critical to egg production, and understanding that it takes at least four and a half months for a stress-free, healthy hen to start laying eggs is important when attempting to meet consumer demand. Timing is everything, but producing eggs is much more complicated.
When demand exceeds the supply of eggs and there is a timing delay in building a reliable supply, prices rise faster than normal given the need to regulate demand — slowing it down so supply can catch up. Add variables to the timing gap that disrupt the balance between supply and demand, and the economics get more complicated, not to mention unpredictable. The volatility accelerates the complexity in managing demand, resulting in even greater price increases.
To understand the basics of the agriculture ecosystem when growing food — whether plant-based or animal protein — multiple variables and time matter when it comes to establishing pricing.
The recent incremental price increases with eggs are a byproduct of several factors, starting with consumer habits that have shifted away from red meat to poultry, climate change impacting conditions to raise animals (clean water and abundant feed/grain), and most impactful, disease.
Much of the current egg pricing situation can be traced back to 2022, when a massive avian flu (H5N1) outbreak was detected. Since then, outbreaks have caused the loss of a record 147.25 million birds across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. As a point of comparison, in 2024 there were approximately 379 million egg-laying hens in the United States, up only 1% versus the prior year. Imagine the impact that losing approximately 39% of the flock in 2022 has had on egg production, when on average a hen lays approximately 300 eggs per year. Also consider the impact of 73 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the United States between 2022 and 2024 that growers had to contend with in order to raise healthy hens — and you begin to better understand that there is no one in the federal government who can actually lower the cost of eggs anytime soon.
As consumer demand continues to persist and an early Easter surge rapidly approaches, the outlook is bleak. Even more alarming is confirmed reporting that avian flu is spreading across the country. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the USDA, in the last 30 days more than 19.63 million birds across 29 states have been infected and must be quickly and humanely slaughtered. Egg prices are expected to increase more than 20% this year, compared to the overall food inflation forecast of just 2.2%.
Growing food is complicated enough, but getting on the wrong side of Mother Nature causes lasting challenges that take a long time to correct. Stay informed and shop on deals when you can. Food inflation is here to stay, and eggs will continue to be in the news throughout the year.
